Um novo consenso de Washington – Luis H. Lins

Um novo consenso de Washington – Luis H. Lins

A crise econômica que adveio aos continentes do planeta Terra, em decorrência do ataque sanitário do Sars-Cov-2, demandou que nações soberanas tomassem medidas desesperadas para evitar seus iminentes colapsos. O país da ordem e do progresso não ficou à parte de tal situação. Durante 2020, fez-se possível testemunhar diversas feridas na máquina econômica brasileira – denunciadas, ademais, por alguns economistas antes mesmo do advento desta infeliz e imensa catástrofe sanitária e que acabaram por agravá-la ainda mais. Entretanto, não apenas o Brasil foi compelido à deterioração de sua economia. Todos os países do globo, desenvolvidos, emergentes ou subdesenvolvidos, tiveram que lidar – ou aprender a lidar – com dívidas soberanas crescentes, déficits orçamentários constantes, quedas nos níveis de produção, baixos valores em indicadores de comércio, alto desemprego, problemas com câmbio, entre outras diversas adversidades trazidas pelo COVID-19, de maneira incrivelmente súbita, às administrações públicas.

O tema do Fórum Econômico Mundial, “O Grande Reset”, insinua, mesmo que indiretamente, ansiedade e apreensão com o futuro. Sabemos que o cenário econômico atual não será sustentável por muito tempo. O petrodólar – sistema onde todo o mercado petrolífero é precificado em dólares, concedendo à moeda americana o título de potência econômica – não poderá durar muito tempo devido à onda crescente de déficits na balança comercial yankee. A França, o Japão, os Estados Unidos, a Itália, a Grécia e Portugal, além de outras nações, já possuem dívidas acima de seus respectivos PIB’s. Os bancos centrais já inflaram tanto suas economias com crédito barato que, agora, não se sabe como reverter tal situação. A Teoria Monetária Moderna leciona, indiretamente, que o problema deve ser “empurrado com a barriga”. Defensores de medidas mais liberais, em especial as ideias redigidas e apresentadas pelo professor Friedrich August von Hayek, em contraposição à escola keynesianista, infelizmente, não possuem voz ativa no cerne do debate econômico. Entretanto, apesar da majoritária doutrina apelar para o “inducionismo econômico estatal”, em um momento onde todas as alternativas ditas modernas foram extrapoladas, um novo Consenso de Washington se faz necessário. Desta vez, para todas as nações, a fim de evitar um problema ainda maior no futuro.

Em 1989, o Consenso de Washington, composto pelo Banco Mundial, o Fundo Monetário Internacional e outras grandes instituições financeiras, estabeleceu a sugestão de dez medidas liberais que levariam os países a desenvolverem suas economias e fomentar a globalização dos mercados. Maior disciplina com a política fiscal, reordenamento nas prioridades dos gastos públicos, execução de reformas tributárias, liberalização comercial e financeira e taxas de câmbio competitivas, além de outras medidas, compõem as sugestões feitas pelo Consenso, a fim de aproximar as nações à economia de mercado. No Brasil, as medidas foram executadas durante a década de 90, culminando na elaboração e execução do Plano Real, salvando os contribuintes brasileiros de uma nova – e pior – rodada de hiperinflação de preços nos produtos de consumo. Retornando ao tempo presente, faz-se necessário clarificar que tais medidas poderiam (há quem diga que “deveriam”) ser aplicadas para que se evitasse um colapso econômico. Ao abrir mão da ideologia – que grita aos quatro cantos da Terra, através de vários indicadores, o quão insustentável ela é – e abraçar o pragmatismo, dando atenção à realidade das contas públicas e executando, prudentemente, medidas como as propostas no Consenso de Washington de 1989, os déficits soberanos diminuiriam, com a possibilidade de superávits, as dívidas públicas seriam amortizadas com maior facilidade, os índices de desemprego cairiam, a produção aumentaria e as nações se modernizariam mais facilmente.

Entretanto, o Fórum Econômico Mundial não está velejando ao encontro deste conjunto de ideias. O conceito de “reset” apresentado pelos idealizadores do evento se voltam muito mais às condições ambientais do planeta e ao incentivo ao desenvolvimento sustentável, cumulado à preocupação com a desigualdade social, evidenciada durante à pandemia de COVID-19, do que com a deterioração econômica dos países. Em outras palavras, instalam-se narrativas no meandro político-econômico que, de maneira ponderada, levam-nos a apoiar ideais que minam a atenção e respeito aos padrões de austeridade, como o aumento de gastos públicos e expansões desnecessárias da nossa base monetária, ao invés de auxiliar nossa marcha em direção contrária, que, bem sabemos, resultará no fim que todos nós buscamos: um desenvolvimento econômico verdadeiramente – e não superficialmente – sustentável. É neste momento em que os cabelos daqueles mais voltados ao pragmatismo liberal¹ ficam de pé. Em outros contextos, a preocupação com a finalidade, excluindo a observação da forma de execução, trouxe péssimas experiências econômicas ao mundo. Aqui no Brasil, podemos citar o exemplo dos planos econômicos Cruzado, Bresser, Verão e Collor, durante o final da década de 80 e início da década de 90, que, a fim de controlar o monstro inflacionário deixado pelo governo militar, apelaram a políticas comprovadamente ineficientes (em especial, a fixação de preços de produtos e serviços, iniciada no Plano Cruzado, a fixação de salários do Plano Bresser e o confisco de poupanças do Plano Collor) focalizando o alcance da finalidade sem observar os meios utilizados para alcançá-la e, consequentemente, piorando o perfil da desigualdade social². O problema foi “resolvido” após o Consenso de Washington, quando economistas como Gustavo Franco, Edmar Bacha, Pérsio Árida, entre outros, direta ou indiretamente inspirados pelo esboço internacional, executaram o Plano Real, dotado de estratégias de desburocratização, abertura econômica, desindexação e redução dos gastos públicos – apesar da descontinuidade experienciada após esse período; levando em consideração, inclusive, a alta vertiginosa dos gastos do governo, além do fato de que a contabilidade fiscal brasileira é calculada de forma divergente da comunidade mundial, deixando de inserir na alíquota total de dívida pública aqueles títulos em posse do Banco Central, demonstra-se que, apesar do claro controle dos índices inflacionários, nem todos os aspectos do Consenso de Washington permaneceram vigentes em solo brasileiro por tanto tempo.³

À vista disso, esta é a hora de trazer à tona os benefícios trazidos pelas políticas implementadas pelos profissionais econômicos guiados pelo Consenso de Washington em 1989. Em um cenário onde todos os países do mundo se encontram em apuros devido ao agravamento de feridas econômicas, em sua maioria por conta do avento da crise sanitária de COVID-19, o debate sobre o “reset” deve ser vertido ao pragmatismo. Se o objetivo é trazer uma solução plausível para escapar de um colapso – solução essa que não seja inflar ainda mais a bolha de problemas que as nações já sofrem – faz-se incrivelmente necessário o estabelecimento de um Novo Consenso de Washington. É feito um convite aos gestores públicos e acadêmicos que, hoje, sobrevivem financeiramente – apesar dos pesares – graças à efetividade do Plano Real contra o fantasma inflacionário, para que seja elaborada, novamente, uma lista de medidas que as nações possam tomar para retomarem as rédeas do desenvolvimento. É necessário afirmar que, em momentos como esse, muitas ideias autoritárias brotam de mentes afeitas ao controle e acabam ganhando fiéis no debate público. O respeito à propriedade e à liberdade dos indivíduos não podem ser tolhidos. Querendo ou não, ambos são uma condição sine qua non do desenvolvimento econômico.

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