O caso GameStop, a falha no sistema e a linha tênue entre pump and dump e short squeeze – Luis H. Lins

O caso GameStop, a falha no sistema e a linha tênue entre pump and dump e short squeeze – Luis H. Lins

Ao final do mês de janeiro, o mercado financeiro americano sofre com a maior incidência de short squeeze das últimas décadas, efeito há muito tempo não testemunhado desde o ocorrido com a Volkswagen em outubro de 2008. A aproximação das finanças globais com a tecnologia, permitindo a automação de ordens de compra e venda de ativos nos mercados financeiros dos países, trouxe bonanças para as instituições e investidores, mas também trouxe malefícios. Entretanto, tal atitude não é crucial para o entendimento desse texto. Faz-se mister, todavia, que se mantenha em mente o raciocínio de que, apesar de não causar o problema, a automatização do mercado o intensificou.

A GameStop é uma empresa varejista do ramo de games. Fundada na década de 80, a empresa era uma gigante das vendas de consoles, desde o Atari 2600 até às plataformas mais atuais. Nos últimos anos, em razão da popularização do e-commerce, tanto para produtos físicos como para produtos digitais, a empresa veio registrando constante desaceleração nos seus demonstrativos financeiros. Este cenário foi acentuado pelo advento da pandemia de COVID-19, onde o choque de demanda, em soma ao choque de oferta, levou as contas da empresa a um nível completamente insatisfatório. Tal sequela chamou a atenção de hedge funds (fundos de investimento) em Wall Street: ali havia uma bela oportunidade para um short selling, i.e., uma venda a descoberto. Foi o que fizeram. Em adição, é necessário introduzir o seguinte fato: o sistema financeiro americano permite que investidores vendam uma quantidade de ações maior do que as que foram, de fato, emitidas pela empresa. Ou seja, se a Barraquinha do Seu João emite 1.000 ações, o mercado pode manter mais de 1.000 posições vendidas ao mesmo tempo. Dito isto, a fim de nivelar o conhecimento de um leitor iniciante, deve-se seguir aos conceitos do que foi apresentado acima.

Um short selling, ou venda a descoberto, é uma operação no mercado em que o investidor vende um ativo que não possui em carteira, com o propósito de obter lucro com a queda do preço do ativo. Uma aposta contra o mercado. Para que a compreensão seja integral, apegue-se ao seguinte exemplo: Sr. Adão está confiante que o preço do açúcar cairá de 2 reais para 1 real nos próximos dias. Portanto, ele aluga um saco de açúcar com Sr. Leôncio, ao preço de 10 centavos por semana, e vende o saco a preço de mercado numa mercearia, embolsando 2 reais. Duas semanas depois, a previsão de Sr. Adão se prova veraz, e o preço do açúcar cai para apenas 1 real. Feliz, Sr. Adão volta à mercearia, compra o açúcar por um real, devolve o saco ao Sr. Leôncio, paga o aluguel de 20 centavos e fica com o troco. Ou seja, apenas apostando contra o preço do açúcar, Sr. Adão lucrou 80 centavos. Em suma, eis o que os traders do Brasil e do mundo chamam de “operar vendido”. No tocante à GameStop, os hedge funds estavam operando vendido para além de 100% dos ativos que a companhia lançou no mercado. Eles dependiam que o preço das ações caísse para realizar lucro e estavam demasiadamente alavancados no mercado. Eis a falha do sistema. Eis o aparato inicial de um short squeeze.

Um grupo de investidores participantes do Wall Street Bets, fórum na rede social Reddit, iniciou um massivo ativismo contra os short sellers, emitindo inúmeras recomendações de compra dos ativos e derivativos da GameStop (negociados na Bolsa de Valores de Nova York através do ticker “GME”), travando um enorme duelo contra os hedge funds que operavam vendido nos papeis. Com mais de um milhão de partícipes, o grupo elevou o preço dos ativos em mais de 100%, levando o papel de 20 dólares para 40 dólares em pouquíssimo tempo. A resposta de alguns sellers foi ainda mais desafiante: eles aumentaram a exposição, vendendo ainda mais papeis ao preço de 40 dólares. Porém, a força da tendência de alta originada pelos investidores do Wall Street Bets levou o preço do papel a níveis estratosféricos. Isso levou algumas operações vendidas às chamadas de margem, em outras palavras, um pedido que o investidor apresente alguma garantia real para que ele prossiga com a operação. 

Faz-se importante salientar que os vendedores acumulam prejuízo a medida em que o preço de um determinado papel sobe. Ou seja, a este ponto, os sellers estavam em um enorme prejuízo. Alguns deles não suportaram tamanha pressão e, por não possuírem garantias para apresentar à corretora na qual negociavam, solicitaram a suspensão de suas operações, amargando o prejuízo em seus orçamentos. Para que um short seller encerre suas ordens, assim como Sr. Adão comprou o açúcar de volta, ele precisa comprar o ativo. Somadas às compras realizadas pelos partícipes do Wall Street Bets, as compras dos ativos da GameStop devido ao encerramento dos shorts de alguns fundos de investimento alavancaram os preços das ações e derivativos da empresa para além da exosfera, alcançando, após uma série de encerramentos, o patamar de incríveis 300 dólares. Eis o short squeeze. Um movimento em que investidores compram grandes quantidades de determinado ativo, buscando romper a estratégia de um short seller, obrigando-o a recomprar os papéis e inflando o preço do ativo. Todo esse movimento em menos de 48 horas.

Esse acontecimento leva ao seguinte questionamento: tal manifesto pode ser enquadrado como manipulação de mercado? Qual a diferença de um short squeeze para um esquema de pump and dump? A diferença é tão fugaz que só é possível classificar partindo de uma minuciosa análise do caso concreto. Pump and dump é o ato de manipular significativamente o preço de um ativo, mediante qualquer plataforma, a fim de obter uma vantagem indevida para si ou para outro, ou de causar danos a terceiros. Em outras palavras, é inchar o preço de um ativo (ou trazê-lo ao mais baixo nível) a fim de lucrar ou dar prejuízo a outro investidor. Por sinal, aqui no Brasil, tal conduta está prevista no art. 27-C da Lei 6.385/76: manipulação de mercado, apenada de 1 a 8 anos de reclusão, além de multa. E qual a diferença entre pump and dump e short squeeze? A intenção do investidor ao comprar determinado ativo. Entretanto, tal definição fica a cargo do regulador. Após a problemática da GME, a Comissão de Valores Mobiliários manifestou-se, alegando que papéis da IRB Brasil estariam sofrendo a mesma conduta, e que “squeeze é uma modalidade de manipulação de mercado”. Portanto, no mercado brasileiro, um short squeeze é visto como crime passível de perda da liberdade daquele que o praticar. 

Se a única razão pela qual um investidor está comprando um ativo é de obrigar fundos a liquidarem suas posições, baseando única e exclusivamente na vontade do investidor, não há como fugir: é um caso criminoso de manipulação de mercado. As justificativas apresentadas pelo Wall Street Bets aos danos causados à indústria financeira americana eram completamente desprezíveis. Quase todos se resumem a “os hedge funds já manipularam demais o mercado e agora é a hora de tirá-los do jogo”. Uma espécie de “justiça com as próprias mãos”, ou melhor, “justiça com as próprias ordens de compra” contra os big players do mercado financeiro dos Estados Unidos. Infelizmente, não levaram em consideração que fundos de pensão e previdência de aposentados geralmente aplicam em hedge funds a fim de capitalizar as economias de milhares de idosos e inválidos. As falhas no sistema americano, que permite a exposição além do exequível, somado ao jogo especulativo, tênue entre a legalidade e a ilegalidade, acabam por afetar aqueles que mal sabem o que significa squeeze. Deontologicamente, iniciar agressão a outrem por motivo inexistente é considerado imoral. Juridicamente, é ilegal. Não há justificativa para que o mercado financeiro trate a mesma conduta de forma diferente.

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