Uma análise macroeconômica das eleições americanas – Patrick Santiago

Uma análise macroeconômica das eleições americanas – Patrick Santiago

Não é de hoje que as eleições americanas são os centro das atenções do debate político brasileiro. Não sem motivo, afinal, em matéria de geopolitica nunca se esteve tão próximo de mudanças tão substanciais no cenário político mundial, seja no campo social ou econômico.

Muitos vêem Donald Trump como uma ameaça, o símbolo de um conservadorismo arcaico e desajustado; enquanto outros, por sua vez, o vêem como a última esperança do ocidente, frente ao poder e domínio da China.

O debate político americano, como quase todos os debates que ocorrem em solo brasileiro, foi vulgarizado. De um lado, uma militância ingenuamente tardia; do outro, conservadores que estão com medo da ameaça chinesa. Mas, frente a tanto temor por parte dos conservadores, imperioso se faz uma análise um pouco mais detalhada dos ‘porquês’ que levaram a opinião pública ao temor. Afinal, faz sentido temer a China? É uma ameaça real?

Para respondermos a essas questões precisamos voltar no tempo. Mais precisamente em setembro de 2019, quando o governo chinês decidiu investir na chamada ‘renda fixa’ americana, comprando os papéis da dívida pública estadunidense. Precisamente foram adquiridos o total de 1,1 trilhão de dólares. Isso equivale a mil dólares por cidadão da maior massa populacional do mundo. A China desde então é a maior credora dos EUA.

Em um cenário hipotético, não seria absurdo dizer que a China controla a economia americana. Explico: Caso a estabilidade diplomática entre as potências acabe, basta que a China ponha à venda todos os títulos da dívida pública americana. Uma venda substancial desses ativos fariam os preços desses títulos despencaram do seu valor de mercado e, necessariamente, suas taxas de juros dispararam. Isso faria a economia americana entrar em uma profunda recessão como jamais vista!

Não podemos trazer este fato à tona sem mencionar o problema pandêmico-sanitário que é o Coronavírus (COVID-19). Como todos sabem, o vírus surgiu na China, na cidade de Wuhan que logo decretou pandemia absoluta em todo território nacional.

Os chineses controlam o vírus em seu território e foram os pioneiros na elaboração factível de uma vacina que hoje já é comercializada com o mundo todo. Sem querer entrar no mérito de saber se o vírus foi criado ou não pelo governo Chinês, o fato é que eles foram os primeiros a controlarem a situação, tendo poucas baixas civis por conta da pandemia. Não só a China, como também a Rússia, seu vizinho e principal parceiro comercial. Não é exagero afirmar que tanto a China quanto a Rússia se tornaram os lugares mais seguros para se proteger do coronavírus.

Durante o auge da pandemia, os Estados Unidos observam um fenômeno natural da economia. Explico: Durante a crise é natural que o investidor médio se preocupe com a segurança dos seus ativos. Isso faz com que os investidores busquem uma ‘alternativa segura’ para alocar seu capital, fazendo com que haja uma desvalorização natural do mercado, pois muitos investidores vendem seus ativos, na tentativa de resguardar o dinheiro em algum lugar seguro. Ora, nenhum lugar é mais seguro do que na dívida pública da maior economia mundial, não é mesmo? Pois bem, muitos investidores retiraram seus ativos de renda variável e alocaram na renda fixa, ocasionando, deste modo, uma massiva valorização dos títulos públicos americanos.

Do mesmo modo, podemos ver as economias desenvolvidas da Europa ‘sangrarem dinheiro’. A Espanha, Alemanha, Itália, Inglaterra, Suíça, etc. Todas tiveram um prejuízo trilionário com a crise, sem falar nos EUA que tiveram o pior ‘crash’ em décadas. Enquanto todo o mundo se afunda em crise e prejuízo, o governo Chinês lucra 30% em cima de todos eles. Como? Simples! Como a China detinha um trilhão em dívida pública e essa dívida pública supervalorizou, lucra quem tem dívida pública para vender. Ou seja: se a China detinha 1 trilhão de dólares em 2019 e o dólar apreciou 30% frente às moedas fracas (sim, por isso o dólar está quase 6 reais), agora a China detém 1 trilhão e 300 bilhões de dólares, pois apreciou 30%.

Mas não para por aí… Quando acontece o ‘efeito manada’ dos investidores saírem das ações da renda variável e buscarem segurança na renda fixa americana, naturalmente as ações das empresas se desvalorizam, haja vista a saída massiva dos antigos investidores. Agora pergunto: O que acontece quando as ações das empresas se desvalorizam? Sim, quem está com o capital mais protegido compra na baixa. Agora adivinhem quem tem mais ‘dinheiro em caixa’ no mundo? Isso mesmo, a China! Os chineses compraram fatias consideráveis das principais empresas americanas, se tornando importantes acionistas com poder de decisão do futuro dessas empresas.

Não acaba por aqui… A China também é a maior consumidora de petróleo do mundo. Em março de 2020, no momento mais crítico da pandemia, a China viu a Arábia Saudita cortar em 30% o valor do petróleo. Ora, se o petróleo está 30% mais barato, significa que a despesa chinesa caiu em 30%, ou seja, a China possui 30% do dinheiro que ‘deixou de gastar’ com a compra de petróleo. Agora vamos recapitular: bolsa mundial quebrada, fluxo de caixa cheio, somados ao maior mercado consumidor do mundo? A China alavancou a economia como nunca antes! Eles dominaram o cenário econômico mundial.

Feita toda essa introdução macroeconômica, podemos falar seguramente que, no final das contas, os conservadores possuem um pouco de razão em temer a China. Principalmente pelo fato de que a China, somados a Rússia, Coreia, Irã, etc… são a maior potência bélica do mundo.

Imaginando outro cenário hipotético numa possível guerra entre os países, observando o cenário atual, isto é, uma Europa e uma América falida, doente e endividada, contra uma Ásia e um Oriente forte, rico e extremamente militarizado? O fim é realmente preocupante. As eleições americanas estão além do fato de que concorrem dois candidatos caricatos e idiossincráticos. As eleições decidirão os rumos geopolíticos do futuro mundial. Por muito
tempo tivemos sob a égide da cultura, economia e moral ocidental. Como ficaria o mundo caso tudo isso mudasse numa geração?

Se o coronavírus é ou não é uma arma biológica, ninguém sabe. O que sabemos é que os comunistas são melhores capitalistas que os próprios capitalistas. Venceram o inimigo no próprio jogo deles. A guerra comercial já acabou. O mundo está apenas vendo a antiga rainha cair.

REFERÊNCIAS:
https://exame.com/economia/china-possui-us-1-3-trilhao-de-divida-dos-eua/
https://noticias.r7.com/internacional/china-vence-virus-com-controle-rigido-de-viajantes-e-
quarentenas-18092020
https://www.moneytimes.com.br/china-e-a-maior-proprietaria-estrangeira-de-titulos-
americanos/
http://correiodopovo-al.com.br/index.php/noticia/2020/03/09/petroleo-desaba-30-maior-
queda-desde-a-guerra-do-golfo-com-guerra-de-preco-entre-arabia-saudita-e-russia

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