[Coluna] Por que Kirchner (de novo)? – Mateus M. Maia

[Coluna] Por que Kirchner (de novo)? – Mateus M. Maia

Recentemente, a chapa de Alberto Fernández e Cristina Kirchner venceu as eleições presidenciais argentinas, derrotando a chapa do atual presidente Maurício Macri e Miguel Ángel Pichetto. O resultado era esperado dadas as circunstâncias atuais, mas o que explica o retorno do kirchnerismo? Não foi no governo de Cristina que a Argentina sofreu com inflação, desemprego e crises institucionais e políticas? Então o que levou metade do povo argentino a escolher os peronistas de esquerda mais uma vez? A resposta mais plausível para esses questionamentos parece ser o próprio Macri. Ao que tudo indica, não foi o mérito próprio de suas políticas que Fernández e Kirchner se elegeram, mas sim por demérito do governo Macri.

O atual presidente argentino, ao entregar o cargo ao recém-eleito Alberto Fernández, tornar-se-á o primeiro presidente eleito não-peronista a terminar o mandato depois de 1950 (dos outros quatro eleitos no período, dois renunciaram e o restante sofreu golpes militares). Isso pode soar meritório para Macri e criar uma ilusão de que ele tenha sido um opositor ao peronismo que sucedeu na presidência. Longe da verdade. Macri falhou muito e, por conta disso, abriu espaço para uma reintegração do peronismo, capitaneada pela chapa de Fernández.

Esse é o diagnóstico que o antropólogo, professor universitário e autor do livro “O que é o peronismo?” Alejandro Grimson fez em entrevista ao Jornal Nexo. Nas palavras dele: “Agora, Fernández está protagonizando um processo de unificação do peronismo, em meio à diversidade do peronismo, num contexto para impedir a reeleição de Macri, que não conseguiu retomar o crescimento econômico como havia prometido e passou a encontrar mais rejeição popular”. Ou seja, o principal fator para o recente resultado foi a ineficiência da política econômica de Macri, que passou longe das promessas ortodoxas de controle inflacionário e austeridade fiscal que fez na sua vitoriosa campanha de 2015.

Fato é que o futuro ex-presidente, como bem demonstra José Mota em texto para o Money Report, não conseguiu implementar as medidas liberais que tinha em mente. Errou ao apostar no gradualismo exagerado em sua estratégia de governo e, de ortodoxo no discurso, na prática terminou no alto da heterodoxia: congelando preços e com uma inflação galopante. Isso não apenas passou longe de retomar o crescimento econômico argentino, mas ajudou a afundar ainda mais o país, o que afetou muito a popularidade de Macri.

É importante pontuar também que a crise econômica argentina é basicamente resultado do alto desemprego que, quando aliado à estagnação ocorrida em 2013, reduziu a capacidade de arrecadação do governo, e por conta da pequena reserva de dólares do país, o que torna o controle da inflação muito mais difícil, pois torna o peso argentino muito suscetível à desvalorização. Ou seja, o cenário passava longe de favorável para o sucesso econômico do governo Macri. O ponto é que, justamente diante de um cenário como esse, o presidente argentino deveria ter sido voraz ao estabelecer medidas ortodoxas. Não havia tempo para uma transição gradual e isso acabou custando a popularidade de Macri. 

Foi a partir dessa brecha política deixada pela impopularidade do presidente que Alberto Fernández se uniu à Cristina Kirchner – de quem se afastara em 2008 (nesse ano, deixou o cargo  que ocupava na chefia de gabinete e se tornou um crítico do governo da também peronista) – na tentativa de unir forças para uma forte oposição. A estratégia teve como resultado a eleição da chapa de esquerda, que assusta os setores ortodoxos da economia. Afinal, foi Cristina Kirchner, com sua forma confusa e desastrosa de fazer política, que pôs a Argentina no caminho da contração econômica, do qual não consegue fugir.

Em suma, Macri – não obstante de suas boas intenções ao tentar fazer o Banco Central ativo e eficiente no combate à inflação, reduzir os gastos públicos e retomar o pleno emprego – falhou na sua estratégia de implementação, que foi moderada além da conta para a situação em que a Argentina se encontrava, e acabou não sendo capaz de contornar minimamente as enormes dificuldades que enfrentava. Talvez, se tivesse seguido passos similares aos de Michel Temer no Brasil – que teve pulso firme na defesa de reformas liberais e conseguiu, aos trancos e barrancos, entregar um Brasil muito melhor do que o que recebeu de Dilma Rousseff -, Macri teria sucedido ao menos parcialmente em sua política econômica e impedido o retorno do peronismo de esquerda ao poder. Esse, infelizmente, não foi o caso.

Com isso, é fácil perceber que na verdade, o único mérito dos kirchneristas aqui foi aproveitar a enorme oportunidade que Macri lhes deu para retomar suas forças. No fim das contas, o liberal (e incompetente) Mauricio Macri, por meio de sua própria incapacidade de lidar com o desafio que se propôs a resolver, colocou o peronismo de esquerda de volta ao poder.

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