Sávio Coelho – Os Falsos Pecados da Economia

Sávio Coelho – Os Falsos Pecados da Economia

O presente artigo tem por objetivo analisar parte da obra “Os Pecados Secretos da Economia”, da economista norte-americana Deirdre McCloskey. Focaremos nossa explicação nesse artigo no que McCloskey chamam de “os falsos pecados” da ciência econômica. Esses falsos pecados, segundo a autora, são as características dessa ciência que o senso comum tende a ver com olhos ruins e muitas vezes desdenha. O objetivo tanto meu como de McCloskey é mostra que, ao contrário desse senso comum, essas características não são pecados, mas virtudes. Espero, desde já, que aproveitem a leitura e que sirva para ajudar na compreensão dessa autora maravilhosa.

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Deirdre McCloskey

 

A Quantificação:

Deirdre começa sua obra afirmando, para a cólera de muitos heterodoxos, que a quantificação é boa. Podemos pensar ela, dessa forma, como uma Gordon Gekko da estatística. Ela nos lembra que a quantificação sempre esteve nas raízes das ciências sociais, como a economia.

Ela nos lembra que, nos primórdios da economia, pessoas como William Petty queriam saber acima de tudo sobre questões acerca do ‘Quanto’, do ‘Que total’, da ‘Qual’ das componentes dos sistemas sociais, sobretudo na administração política. Era uma obsessão até então inédita, uma vez que não se verificava tanto apego a métodos quantitativos em períodos anteriores. E essa obsessão, segundo Deirdre, é uma obsessão burguesa. Quanto custaria realizar uma ação X? Qual parte percentual da riqueza de uma nação era obra do comércio e qual era do fato de possuir colônias? Qual o total de rendimentos disso? Qual parte disso realmente vale determinado valor? Adam Smith, anos depois de Petty, ainda se perguntava Quanto os salários pagos em Edimburgo eram diferentes dos pagos em Londres e Quanto as colônias ganhas nas guerras contra a França realmente valiam para a coroa britânica.

Historicamente, a invenção da estatística está associada à necessidade dos Estados de quantificar certas coisas para ampliar seu poder de controle. Os Estados precisavam de uma forma de mensurar certas coisas que julgavam importantes; preços, população, circulação de metais preciosos, balanças comerciais, etc. Tanto é isso que a sua raiz está na palavra Estado. Todavia, devido ao crescimento do comércio no período renascentista, logo esse métodos quantitativos foram sendo incorporados pela burguesia como forma de quantificar seus empreendimentos, riscos, rendimentos, estoques, etc.

Surge assim, nas palavras de Deirdre, a Era da Estatística. Tudo, das detenções ao número de mortos devido ao fumo, ao valor da vida e à classificação de risco de determinados empreendimentos, passou a ser visto como uma questão de números. Devido a isso, Deirdre, é claro, fala que surgiu a loucura. Essa loucura é justamente uma obsessão quantitativa por parte de certas pessoas, uma compulsão em saber dos números de tudo que viam; do número de tijolos em uma parede à quantidade de células em uma folha. Ela ilustra isso com uma abordagem do lendário crítico inglês Samuel Johnson (conhecido como Dr Johnson). Em uma viagem para a Escócia, Johnson chegou a medir o tamanho de praticamente tudo o que via e lhe interessava usando sua bengala como instrumento de medida. Certamente certas pessoas, como alguns críticos conservadores do capitalismo, estavam certos ao ficar desconfortáveis com o excessivo apego à estatística. Ela pode ser uma excelente ferramenta para idiotas ou pessoas com segundas intenções que para não com a verdade. Basta lembrar, como Deirdre faz, que a teoria formal da estatística foi criada por volta de 1880 por eugenistas.

A obsessão para com a estatística piorou no campo das ciências sociais por volta dos anos 1920. Na economia, certamente Leon Walras, Irving Fisher e Ragnar Frisch são os principais responsáveis pela introdução dessa abordagem. Mesmo os antropólogos, uma profissão tão centrada nos aspectos fantásticos e artísticos humanos, começaram a adotar abordagem quantitativas em seus estudos.

Todavia, como Deirdre aponta, essa visão puramente crítica da abordagem quantitativa é algo incompleto. Ela se nega a ver que, apesar de seus aspectos negativos, essa abordagem é necessária de diversas formas. Afinal, muitas das coisas que queremos saber necessita de estatística para a compreensão. É importante saber — não em termos absolutos — quanto choveu hoje, quanto foi efetivamente plantado em uma determinada área ou quanto foram os rendimentos de uma empresa. Por razões espirituais e práticas os seres humanos querem saber o Quanto. Deirdre, todavia, alerta para a não objetividade do número estatístico:

Pode-se ver pelos exemplos que, aqui, não estamos afirmando que os números, por sua simples natureza, são especialmente ‘objetivos’, seja qual for o significado exato desse termo da filosofia popular, ou ‘não políticos’, ou ‘científicos’. Os números são da ordem da retórica, isto é, voltados para a persuasão humana. Numa cultura de persuasão, concordamos em atribuir um significado a este ou aquele número, que em seguida irá nos persuadir acerca desta ou aquela visão sobre a matéria. Seixos são abundantes, como disse Richard Rorty; a verdade dos fatos, nem tanto. Depende da nossa decisão humana contar, pesar ou misturar os seixos ao compilar os fatos sólidos.

Os economistas sempre tiveram sua profissão associada a uma montanha de números, sobretudo em forma de indicadores. A estatística parece ser algo de sua essência. Tanto é que, nos departamentos de economia das universidades, um bom argumento estatístico é sempre tratado com respeito. Os não economistas detestam os números, não gostam deles, e ficam furiosos apenas com sua presença. Todavia, existe questões que só podem ser respondidas de forma numérica. E pode-se ajudar a responder muitas outras questões com a ajuda dos números. Deirdre usa o exemplo da idade para ilustrar isso. A sua idade é um fato que certamente pode dizer pouco a seu respeito, mas é um número útil para muitas finalidades. É humanamente útil saber que alguém nasce em determinado ano e cresceu em determinado período. Se cresceu no auge da liberdade social dos anos 60 ou se nasceu em 11 de Setembro de 2001. As variáveis climáticas, de luz, som, recursos e outras são extremamente importantes para a vida da humanidade.

Desta forma, contar não é um pecado, mas uma virtude.

Números, a essência fria da contagem.

A Matemática:

Dando continuidade à sua explicação dos falsos pecados, Deirdre McCloskey entra em um campo odiado por muitos de nós: a matemática. Alguns de vocês leitores podem dizer: “Mas, Sávio, ela já não havia trabalhado esse tema na parte do falso pecado da contagem?”.

É ai que vocês se enganam, meus caros. Nesse tópico, Deirdre mostrará que, ao contrário do que passa na cabeça de muitos, as duas coisas não tem uma relação necessária.

“A matemática não é idêntica à contagem ou à estatística”, é assim que Deirdre inicia sua explicação. Por mais estranho que possa parecer, a maior parte da matemática não tem haver com números propriamente ditos. Euler, por exemplo, usava cálculos da mesma forma que os matemáticos modernos usam computadores, para provar suas ideias quanto ao que os matemáticos definem como uma prova real de fatos incríveis, como e + 1 = 0. Qualquer um pode, em verdade, obter uma prova real ao estilo grego, sem tomar conhecimento de um número sequer, ou nem mesmo um exemplo concreto. Deirdre usa, para exemplificar isso, o clássico caso de Pitágoras. O Teorema de Pitágoras é verdadeiro para qualquer triângulo retângulo, quaisquer que sejam as dimensões desse, e é provado não por indução a partir de N exemplos de triângulos retângulos, mas de maneira universal e eterna a partir de uma dedução de premissas. Se vocês aceitar essas premissas, você acaba por aceitar o teorema.

A estatística, e outros métodos quantitativos usados nas ciências, podem responder perguntas com relação ao Quanto. A Matemática, por sua vez, responde dedutivamente o Por quê e, em uma versão mais filosófica da matemática, Se.

Pergunta-se quanto ao Por quê/Se não ser a mesma coisa que perguntar Quanto. Deirdre explica isso da seguinte forma:

Vocês podem saber que deixar de se lembrar do aniversário de seu par amoroso vai ter algum efeito em sua relação (Se), e até atender que esse ou aquele efeito do esquecimento se deve a certos mecanismos psicológicos —  ‘Você não me ama a ponto de saber que dou importância para meu aniversário’ (Por quê). Mas para saber o Quanto esse esquecimento irá prejudicar sua relação, você precisa saber dos números.

Mesmo que se saiba o Por quê, o Quanto irá depender quantitativamente do quão sensível é o comportamento do Por quê na alma daquele em que age. E, no mundo real, essa sensibilidade é uma questão empírica e não teórica. As respostas possíveis que a pessoa pode dar variam na sensibilidade, no Quanto, no efeito quantitativo e em vários outros fatores.

Desde berço, a economia tem quase sempre sido “matemática”, no sentido de que se interessa por questões do tipo Por quê/Se sem levar em questão o Quanto. Deirdre usa o seguinte exemplo para ilustrar isso:

Quando vocês compram pão no supermercado, tanto vocês quanto o supermercado saem ganhando em alguma medida. Como sei disso? Porque o supermercado oferece voluntariamente o pão e vocês aceitam a oferta também voluntariamente. E isso deve ter melhorado algo para os dois, seja muito ou pouco.

Foi essa linha de pensamento que levou a uma conclusão quase unânime entre economistas: o livre comércio é bom. Se as transações voluntárias são boas para todos em trocas individuais, então as trocas voluntárias entre a totalidade do povo X e a totalidade do povo Y também gerará benefícios mútuos. Logo, o comércio entre grupos qualquer é sempre bom. Logo, por análise inversa, qualquer restrição ao livre comércio é ruim.

E embora esse argumento seja um dos mais importantes da economia, ele não é empírico. Não existe nele nada falando do Quanto. Afirma que existe um ganho do comércio e somente isso. O raciocínio dessa questão é do tipo Por quê/Se. Da maneira que está formulado, e aceitando suas premissas, ele não tem como estar errado, assim como o Teorema de Pitágoras. É um encadeamento lógico que parte de axiomas implícitos e chega em uma conclusão qualitativa. A partir do conjunto de axiomas A a conclusão C é válida. A implica C.

Com o advento da síntese neoclássica, ou, como Deirdre chama, da economia samuelsoniana, os argumentos verbais foram substituídos por variáveis, símbolos e teoremas de pontos fixos. Com isso, muitos outros departamentos de ciências sociais se sentiram traídos ou ultrapassados pela arrogância matemática dos economistas “samuelsonianos”. Não conseguiam compreender o que significavam todos aqueles números, ficavam ultrajados ao ver uma ciência humana com tanto foco em números e não nas pessoas.

Todavia, não há nada de novo em usar o raciocínio dedutivo na economia. Na verdade ele se inicia com David Hume e os Fisiocratas, quando esses exploraram questões inteiramente qualitativas do tipo Por quê/Se. Deduzir conclusões logicamente válidas a partir de certas premissas sempre foi um dos jogos favoritos dos economistas. Se o objetivo é conectar uma coisa à outra, deduzir conclusões C de alegações A, apoiar o livre comércio, isso a partir da hipótese do consumidor autônomo, por qual razão não fazer tal de forma universal e, se possível, eterna?

Claro, Deirdre lembra que toda dedução depende da validação das premissas. Se premissas de racionalidade não funcionarem, por exemplo, óbvio que teremos algumas falhas nos processos de troca. No entanto, de maneira semelhante, qualquer indução depende da validade dos dados. Se ocorrer qualquer erro nas amostrar analisadas, mesmo que seja um erro pontual, os resultados estatísticos não irão se sustentar. Qualquer cálculo depende da validade dos dados usados nas premissas. Tudo, no fim das contas, depende. O que, segundo McCloskey, é natural, pois somos mortais e não fomos abençoados com a benção das certezas.

Assim, poderíamos ver a matemática como uma virtude.

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