A Dispersão do Conhecimento: fundamentos da análise hayekiana - Miguel Lopes

A Dispersão do Conhecimento: fundamentos da análise hayekiana – Miguel Lopes

Um dos artigos mais conhecidos e popularizados do economista austríaco-britânico Friedrich August Von Hayek, é o ‘O Uso do Conhecimento na Sociedade’, de setembro de 1945.

Este é de certo, um dos artigos mais importantes para uma compreensão dos fundamentos no qual este autor trabalha. No entanto, me estranha o fato de que há muitos outros artigos de Hayek, tão importantes quanto, que não recebem a mesma visibilidade, como o famoso ‘Economics and Knowledge’ de 1937. Artigos como este citado, em muito ajudariam a dispersar as confusões acerca do que Hayek realmente propôs ou disse dentro de sua concepção econômica, algo que é alvo de muitas incompreensões em debates, de várias partes diferentes, e incrivelmente, até mesmo dentro da própria Escola Austríaca da qual o autor fazia parte.

Por conta disto, eu me propus a realizar uma série sobre os artigos famosos de Hayek, começando pelo mais famoso de todos, e o que em muitos aspectos, ajuda a criar confusões por conta de trabalhar com um pano de fundo teórico que muitos não conhecem tão bem quanto o necessário, e por isso, tendem a cair em interpretações erradas. Meu objetivo assim, é propor que todos façam a leitura deste artigo, e depois, sublinhar os pontos mais importantes e necessários para o entendimento deste.

Hayek e a limitação do conhecimento

O que Hayek basicamente está afirmando neste artigo, são três pontos importantes que listarei mais abaixo. O ponto mais difícil de se entender, não é a mensagem do artigo em si; mas sim os pressupostos teóricos com que Hayek trabalha. Estes pressupostos podem ser encontrados de forma incipiente num princípio em comum, esclarecido pelo fato de que Hayek foi influenciado pela epistemologia e filosofia de seu amigo, o famoso filósofo da ciência Karl Popper.

Acredito que, constante as controvérsias, a abordagem através da leitura que leva em conta essa perspectiva, seja uma forma didática e interessante de chegar no âmago das questões mais importantes, em si, que Hayek apresenta depois, no artigo.

Embora uma abordagem completa, sobre o que consiste essa filosofia e epistemologia específica, é algo que escapa o escopo deste trabalho, podemos destacar dois pontos importantes dentro da estrutura teórica popperiana, e que são pertinentes a este debate sobre as ideias de Hayek: a ideia do falibilismo e do evolucionismo. Estas ideias, dentro do sentido do corpo teórico de Popper, e que tendem a assumir um sentido radicalista quanto às implicações disto e até qual ponto isto nos leva, podem ser resumidas na abordagem de que, em primeiro lugar, todo o nosso conhecimento é não-justificável epistemologicamente (pois sempre é possível que tenham falhas no nosso conhecimento, que para o autor, existem em todos os níveis possíveis), e sobre como isso se relaciona com a ideia do elevado grau de complexidade da realidade.

Isto reflete um embate teórico entre duas concepções epistemológicas (ou seja, tudo o que diz respeito a validação do nosso conhecimento sobre a realidade) diferentes. A primeira é a concepção justificacionista, e a segunda é a concepção falsificacionista (ou não-justificacionista).

A concepção justificacionista é o contrário da concepção falsificacionista: a primeira trabalha com a ideia de que, de alguma forma, o nosso conhecimento pode ser epistemologicamente justificável em meio a emergência da complexidade que nos envolve dentro da realidade, de forma que possamos dizer que temos um conhecimento completo e de certeza sobre algo – que o nosso conhecimento pode ser verificado e confirmado como certo, ou seja, epistemologicamente justificado. Por outro lado, toda a concepção da epistemologia não-justificacionista, trabalha com a ideia de que o nosso conhecimento é sempre conjectural, passível de erros, e impossível de passar por um processo de indução generalizada, ou seja, que o conhecimento supostamente poderia ser generalizado por meio de uma verificação de casos particulares que tenderiam a coadunar uns aos outros, e dessa forma, chegar a um conhecimento geral e corretamente justificado. Todo o nosso conhecimento é baseado em uma mera opinião sobre o que consiste a realidade que vivenciamos, opinião essa que já está baseada em nossa própria agência espaço-temporal, de forma que há sempre a possibilidade de que, até o choque de nossas teorias com a realidade, ele estar com erros que não conhecemos ainda, antes do próprio teste.

Esse segundo ponto é o âmago de uma das duas ideias importantes que foram citadas no parágrafo mais acima, para se ter em mente sobre no que consiste a perspectiva de Hayek: o falibilismo, tomada aqui no corpo teórico popperiano como uma versão radicalizada, ou seja, a ideia de que podemos sempre estar errados em nossas teorias e perspectivas sobre o mundo que nos cerca, e na medida em que isso é verdade, não seria possível justificar nosso conhecimento como uma certeza, no sentido de ter um conhecimento de fato epistemologicamente justificado. Na medida em que nunca sabemos se estamos corretos em nossas crenças, nunca poderemos dizer se estamos de fato com a verdade, e portanto, nunca poderíamos justificar nosso conhecimento, e desta forma, devemos estar sempre abertos a um processo constante de crítica.

É impossível também, ter o conhecimento totalmente justificável através da mera verificação de uma teoria: pois podem ocorrer também falhas relacionadas a quem observa, em relação a realidade que está sendo observada. Isto quer dizer que o status desta é também, ao menos epistemologicamente, conjectural (ou seja, ideia com fundamento não verificado). Isso pode ser demonstrado por meio de uma ideia que é bastante usada por Popper, em algumas de suas obras: o confirmation bias, que é uma tendência incipiente do observador em tentar apenas confirmar as suas perspectivas e opções ideológicas ao mensurar a verificação dos testes.

Isso não quer dizer, no entanto, que não podemos dizer que um conhecimento possa ser mais correto que o outro, na medida em que um pode se compatibilizar mais, e outros menos, em relação a realidade. Ainda podemos dizer, por meio de um processo de tentativa e erro, que envolve categorias como seleção, retenção, falseabilidade e eliminação das hipóteses erradas, qual conhecimento está de fato mais próximo em relação a verdade incipiente na realidade. O que não podemos, no entanto, é dar o status epistemológico de justificação a este conhecimento, de estabelecer aquilo como a certeza ou a verdade, na medida em que podemos apenas dizer qual está com um alcance maior em relação a realidade, ou seja, qual está mais próximo da verdade; mas uma vez tendo em mente que todo o nosso conhecimento é conjectural e passível de falhas, nunca poderemos dar a certeza e justificar epistemologicamente aquela nossa teoria sobre a realidade. No máximo, podemos indicar quais estão erradas, e a partir disso, poder dizer que as teorias sobreviventes estão ao menos, mais próximas da verdade.

Uma vez tendo-se em mente que não há um conhecimento que possa ser totalmente justificado (pois mesmo que possamos fazer algo aparentemente certo, nunca poderemos ter a certeza se haviam opções ainda mais corretas ou se nosso conhecimento sobre esta ou aquela observação ou teoria estava de fato correta), surge-se a necessidade do reconhecimento da limitação da mente humana em relação a realidade.

E uma vez tendo-se em mente que todo o nosso conhecimento é conjectural, na medida em que nunca podemos epistemologicamente o justificar como certo ou dado, mas que podemos indicar qual hipótese estava errada ao confrontada com a realidade, torna-se necessário a ideia de um espaço descentralizado que permita a liberdade para a criação de uma vasta pluralidade de teorias e conjecturas sobre a realidade (elemento de variação ou de conjecturas) uma vez que quanto maior o número de tentativas maior as chances de acertos, tal como um mecanismo de crítica e falsificação das hipóteses erradas (elemento de seleção ou de refutação). É nisso que consiste os dois elementos essenciais, já citados, para se entender a filosofia e epistemologia popperiana da qual Hayek é influenciado: o falibilismo (a noção de que nosso conhecimento é sempre passível de falhas e por conta disto nunca pode ser justificado), e o evolucionismo (como, por meio de um processo constante de seleção, ambientes complexos podem emergir sem uma ordem central).

Nisso se fundamenta também os três aspectos basilares para entender a sua perspectiva econômica: 1) o individualismo metodológico (a noção de que as categorias da realidade só podem ser entendidas sob o escopo de como o individuo age dentro de seu meio e como ele monta o seu ‘plano individual’ sobre a realidade, e como neste processo se geram instituições sociais e certos fenômenos durante a interação), 2) o mercado como um processo (a ideia de que o mercado deve ser estudado não como uma categoria só, mas como um processo genético-casual, ou seja, o passo-a-passo de como a economia de mercado funciona, e assim, emerge-se uma ordem racional e social), 3) o subjetivismo (a ideia de que nossas hipóteses sobre a realidade são sempre relativas e variáveis, assim como passíveis de falhas, em relação a agência individual dentro do seu espaço-tempo).

Para Hayek, o livre-mercado reflete perfeitamente esta condição: através da liberdade concedida pela propriedade privada, e o espaço descentralizado que permite o teste das teorias (que é o mercado), há milhares de oportunidades de teorias empresariais e formas de encontrar ou executar funções que antes não eram conhecidas, ou seja, potenciais formas novas de descobrir como interagir com a realidade e encontrar novas soluções e rápidas adaptações para problemas dinâmicos, por meio de um constante processo de descoberta da realidade que nos cerca. Milhares de indivíduos montam suas próprias conjecturas e teorias sobre o que deve ser feito com os recursos, em relação a realidade em que vivem, e quais são as melhores formas de inovar, e por serem muitas das vezes conjecturas diferentes e contraditórias, concorrem por meio de uma rivalidade, entre si, para ver qual a melhor, chocando as suas teorias contra a realidade. Essa pluralidade teórica, o grande número de conjecturas sobre a realidade através do processo empresarial, se reflete em um processo mais rápido e eficiente de tentativa e erro: algo como, se atirarmos para todos os lados, ou seja, quanto mais tentativas ou pessoas tentando, há mais chances de acertar.

No entanto, somos confrontados pelo problema já descrito acima: uma vez tendo em mente que o nosso conhecimento é sempre potencialmente falho, torna-se necessário um processo de seleção que consiga filtrar e selecionar qual parte do nosso conhecimento está certo ou errado sobre a realidade, ou seja, qual das teorias, da grande pluralidade descrita acima, estão erradas e quais se compatibilizam com a realidade (que no caso da economia, é a estrutura produtiva). Esse mecanismo deve ser feito por um processo impessoal, e desta forma, descentralizado, uma vez que se a seleção de qual das nossas teorias está mais correta em relação a realidade e quais estão erradas, fosse feita por algo que envolve a capacidade limitada da nossa mente em organizar e selecionar erros (algo como um planejador central), estaríamos simplesmente jogando o problema para outra etapa: pois o conhecimento do planejador é tão conjectural e falível quanto o nosso.

Surge então a pergunta: como realizar um processo de seleção descentralizado e impessoal, para a correção de nosso conhecimento potencialmente falível? Hayek dá a resposta: o sistema de preços, através dos lucros e prejuízos. A lucratividade revelada durante o processo competitivo, irá me informar qual daquelas minhas teorias empresariais estava correta em relação a realidade econômica, ao passo que o prejuízo irá me mostrar que aquele conhecimento estava errado, e que portanto, exige um processo de correção dos erros empresariais que estou cometendo, do contrário, eu tenho o prejuízo até ser eliminado do mercado. Desta forma, o mercado consegue funcionar como um mecanismo auto-corretivo, que seleciona os seus erros e os elimina.

É importante assimilar um detalhe sobre o processo de correção das teorias empresariais em caso de prejuízo: uma vez que estamos tratando de agentes racionais, ainda que de forma limitada, nós temos um processo de coordenação empresarial, onde os agentes aprendem com seus erros, e tendem a copiar quem está acertando. É durante o processo competitivo que os fatos sobre a realidade econômica são descobertos, e concomitantemente, se há também um processo de correção e aprendizado. Isso se espalha pela economia inteira criando uma ordem racional e coerente; ao se espalhar para todos os agentes dentro da economia, se cria um processo de coordenação na produção e uso dos recursos a um nível eficiente, através da seleção dos erros e generalização do conhecimento já ‘corrigido’, de forma que conseguimos compatibilizar os planos individuais de todos os agentes dentro de uma economia; ou seja, que todas as várias ações individuais consigam adquirir uma conformação entre elas. Em outras palavras, emerge-se um processo espontâneo, de uma maneira que os diversos planos individuais dos agentes se tornem compatíveis entre si e entre a realidade econômica, e que assim consigam manter uma coordenação produtiva coerente em relação a escassez dos recursos, ou seja, com o fato de os recursos serem limitados e logo, terem de ser direcionados para fins específicos. Esse processo, Hayek chama de ‘feedback negativo’.

O sistema de preços então, como explicado logo acima, assimila e condensa uma parte deste conhecimento que foi corrigido, e cria um processo de coordenação descentralizada, que informa as condições necessárias dentro da economia: essas condições são principalmente a disponibilidade dos recursos, as preferências individuais, e as técnicas produtivas. Essas informações condensadas pelo sistema de preços, que refletem essas condições, nos permitem então enfrentar a complexidade de uma economia moderna, e agir sem a necessidade de um comando central. Como Hayek explica em seu artigo do qual estamos tratando:

“Vale a pena contemplar por um instante um exemplo muito simples e comum do sistema de preços em ação para ver exatamente o que ele pode fazer. Suponha por um instante que, em algum lugar do mundo, uma nova oportunidade de usar alguma matéria prima surgiu — tomemos o estanho como exemplo — ou então que alguma das fontes de estanho tenha sido eliminada. Para o nosso exemplo não importa — e é muito significativo que isso não importe — qual dessas duas causas tenham aumentado a escassez de estanho. Tudo que os usuários de estanho precisam saber é que parte do estanho que eles costumavam consumir agora está sendo usado com mais proveito em outro lugar e, em decorrência disto, eles precisam ser mais econômicos em seu uso.

Não é preciso nem que boa parte deles saiba de onde essa demanda mais urgentemente surgiu, nem mesmo em prol de quê eles irão poupar esses recursos. Basta que alguns deles saibam diretamente da existência da nova demanda e transfiram recursos para ela, que algumas outras pessoas percebam o vazio que foi então criado e ajam para preenchê-lo com recursos de outras fontes, e então o efeito irá rapidamente se espalhar por todo o sistema econômico, influenciando não apenas todos os usos do estanho, mas também os usos dos seus substitutos, e dos substitutos desses substitutos, assim como a oferta de todas as coisas feitas de estanho, e a dos seus substitutos dessas coisas, e assim por diante; e tudo isso ocorre sem que a grande maioria daqueles que realizam essas substituições saiba nada sobre a causa original dessas mudanças. O todo age como se fosse um único mercado, mas isso não ocorre porque cada um dos seus membros pôde analisá-lo como um todo, mas sim porque os campos limitados da visão de cada um tinham alcance suficiente para que, através de inúmeros intermediários, a informação relevante fosse comunicada para todos. O mero fato de que há um preço para cada bem — ou, melhor dizendo, que cada preço local está ligado de certa forma com o custo de transportá-lo para esse local, e assim por diante — traz a mesma solução que uma única mente dotada de todas as informações (embora ela seja apenas uma possibilidade imaginária) teria alcançado, ainda que essas informações na verdade estejam dispersas entre todas as pessoas envolvidas no processo.”

É isso o que nos permite encarar a complexidade que uma economia com uma moderna divisão do trabalho tem, e que, sem este processo descrito acima, a nossa mente não conseguiria assimilar sozinha, dado a enorme complexidade e a impossibilidade de integrar todos estes fatos em meio a uma mudança tão constante e dinâmica.

Hayek nos mostra, portanto, que uma vez tendo em mente os aspectos de complexidade e falibilismo, só a ação descentralizada, consegue assimilar e realizar um eficiente uso do conhecimento dentro da sociedade. Como este diz, a defesa da liberdade (ou seja, de errar, acertar, tentar) repousa em última instância, no reconhecimento da limitação de nosso conhecimento, ou seja, de como a mente humana não pode assimilar sozinha a complexidade que envolve o problema econômico.

Vemos então que o livre mercado exibe três características específicas que interagem entre si na forma de um processo: um elemento de complexidade (a impossibilidade da mente humana em conhecer todos os meios e fins necessários para resolver o problema alocativo), um elemento de variação (pluralidade de teorias empresariais), um elemento de seleção (ou refutação) e coordenação (sistema de preços e lucros e prejuízos). Em meio a este complicado e descentralizado processo, emerge-se uma ordem racional econômica e complexa, de uma forma espontânea, de tal maneira em que ela é o resultado da ação dos indivíduos que a compõe, e que no entanto, emerge sem a necessidade de qualquer ordem central ou deliberada de qualquer um deles.

Em meio a explicação acima, há três comentários a serem destacados sobre este artigo de Hayek:

1. A limitação do conhecimento dentro da economia e o sistema de preços

Na ótica de Hayek, há muitos economistas que esquecem algo que diz respeito a própria economia em si. Muitos acabam por não entender no que consistem os agregados econômicos estudados. Coisas como inflação, deflação, crises no geral e etc, não são apenas ‘agregados macroeconômicos’ ou ‘categorias’ que existem por si só, mas são por assim dizer, o reflexo de um condicionamento específico dos indivíduos.

A economia não é o estudo de ‘coisas’, mas sim da nossa relação com elas. Ou seja, é o estudo do que sabemos sobre o que podemos fazer com esses recursos escassos, e assim, direcionar eles para os melhores fins. Os fenômenos econômicos são o reflexo do condicionamento de como os indivíduos estão não só escolhendo através de suas ações, mas principalmente, de como o conteúdo da ação, o conhecimento, se envolve neste processo e se reflete nesses fenômenos agregados. A questão surge então sobre como, através de uma abordagem genético-casual, isso ocorre.

O problema que surge em meio a isto, é o de justamente saber o que de melhor pode-se fazer com os recursos escassos numa sociedade muito complexa, e como explicado, onde a mente humana não conseguiria assimilar sozinha de forma consciente, uma vez que transcende a sua capacidade de lidar com sistemas. Podemos conceber que algo assim possa ser resolvido em uma economia relativamente primitiva; mas não em uma moderna divisão do trabalho. No segundo caso, há milhares de finalidades, meios, combinações e usos, para milhões de pessoas com preferências diferentes; e obviamente nunca deve-se esquecer: usos, fins, meios, combinações e preferências que são conjecturais e falíveis. O uso do conhecimento aqui é extenso, complexo e impossível de ser controlado por uma única pessoa ou um único corpo de pessoas, de forma centralizada. A todo o momento, na alocação, produção, direcionamento e em todas as funcionalidades econômicas, há o uso do conhecimento de milhares de pessoas. Um conhecimento limitado de cada uma, que deve ser corrigido, e que se completam.

É como um grande ‘quebra-cabeça’, com milhares de peças, onde todas elas se completam, e o trabalho da economia seria justamente o de coordenar de forma a encaixar as ‘peças’ da forma correta. No entanto, o ‘quebra-cabeça’ teria um nível de complexidade maior do que o que qualquer ‘jogador’ poderia conscientemente lidar. É impossível, ademais, que um ‘planejador central’ consiga montar esse ‘quebra-cabeça’, pois ele também tem um conhecimento tão limitado, conjectural e falível, quanto o dessas ‘peças’ com conhecimento igualmente limitado, conjectural e falível.

É nesse sentido que surge então um mecanismo especial que nos permite realizar certa precisão para manter a coordenação econômica: o sistema de preços, como já explicado acima. Os preços nos indicam o quanto de recurso há disponível, as preferências e as técnicas certas a serem usadas em relação as duas categorias anteriores. Quando um recurso se torna mais escasso, precisamos economizar este de forma a manter a ordem econômica, e direcionar ele apenas para os fins ainda mais urgentes. O sistema de preços, portanto, reflete e realiza também esse processo de coordenação na produção: quando este recurso fica mais escasso, o que é algo que se reflete no aumento do preço, faz-se com que apenas pessoas que realmente precisam muito daquilo, e portanto, tem um fim mais importante, o adquiram; o resto dos agentes, com fins menos importantes, acabam por desistirem de usar e assim tenderem a optar por bens substitutos, ou então que estes agentes comecem a racionalizar o pouco daquele recurso que estes já tem, ou então que em meio a essa escassez e a oportunidade de lucro por conta disto, encontrem incentivos para produzir mais daquele recurso que se tornou mais escasso, e assim, equilibrem a produção daquele recurso a um nível normal.

Assim, o sistema de preços é um mecanismo eficiente que corrige o conhecimento e depois sinaliza de forma generalizada todas as informações necessárias sobre o que fazer com os recursos, para todas as partes e agentes que tem um conhecimento, por sua vez, falível e limitado, no mercado. Assim, conseguimos realizar, através do uso do conhecimento de milhões de pessoas, a tarefa fundamental da economia: a de direcionar os recursos escassos, passíveis de usos alternativos, para os fins mais adequados.

2. A metodologia neoclássica e o equilíbrio

Esse artigo de Hayek é também, principalmente, uma crítica a metodologia neoclássica. As diferenças metodológicas entre as duas escolas, a austríaca e a neoclássica, são diferentes o bastante para causar sérios problemas.

Em um mercado normal, nós temos milhões de pessoas usando o seu conhecimento limitado a cada segundo, por meio de suas ações, por exemplo, comprando, vendendo, ou mesmo tomando decisões corriqueiras. Há também várias falhas e problemas que nascem disto. Dessa forma, poderíamos dizer que o mercado nunca está de fato em equilíbrio, por conta de toda essa incerteza, erros, entre outros problemas. Uma economia em equilíbrio seria aquela onde o plano individual de cada agente não precisaria mudar em relação aos obstáculos que encontra; o conhecimento certo sobre o que fazer com os recursos, portanto, já está ‘dado’, e o mercado já está alocando os recursos de forma perfeitamente eficiente.

No entanto, como citado, isto nunca acontece de fato. O equilíbrio pode aparecer apenas como uma tendência, tendência essa formada pela coordenação generalizada causada pelo sistema de preços através do feedback negativo como foi explicado acima, mas nunca pode se realizar como tal, devido a já mencionada incapacidade da mente humana em controlar processos tão absurdamente complexos quanto uma economia inteira, onde há mudanças dinâmicas literalmente a cada segundo que impossibilitam que isso ocorra. Teríamos de pressupor um conhecimento praticamente perfeito sobre a realidade econômica, para corresponder a este estado. No entanto, sabemos que isso não é verdade: portanto, os erros de alocação e os desperdícios associados à competição no mercado, refletem então, o processo de descoberta, tentativa e erro de correção do conhecimento dos agentes durante o processo empresarial competitivo. Esse processo de descoberta por tentativa e erro, por sua vez, contradiz um estado estacionário e estático na economia, pois este estado pressupõe um conhecimento já praticamente perfeito, que não precisaria ser corrigido.

No entanto, a metodologia neoclássica trabalha com esta hipótese simplificadora, de forma meramente metodológica e pedagógica. Ou seja, hipóteses e estudo de fenômenos supondo um mercado em equilíbrio, e estático, para pesquisas. Isso acontece por uma influência comum e histórica em tentar identificar a economia como uma categoria que estaria mais perto, por exemplo, da física ou da engenharia química; os modelos de equilíbrio dentro da economia, nessa pressuposição, corresponderiam então aos famosos estados estacionários da engenharia química, onde buscamos isolar causalidades, e assim, estudar certos fenômenos ‘em separado’ dentro de um espaço determinado, sempre podendo ajustar certas condições, e sempre mantendo as outras de forma que fiquem totalmente constantes e independentes da variável do tempo, e assim, descobrir nexos de causalidades entre os fenômenos econômicos para se chegar a uma conclusão sobre como estes funcionam. Isto é meramente uma ferramenta metodológica; obviamente nenhum economista neoclássico pensa que os mercados são assim de fato. Os modelos de equilíbrio aparecem apenas como um modelo normativo de estudos, para se chegar a certas conclusões sobre o que poderia se suceder a análise de fenômenos se pudéssemos isolar e controlar eles, mantendo-os constantes, uma coisa que obviamente não pode ser feita na realidade da dinâmica social.

No entanto, o que Hayek nos diz, é que a metodologia neoclássica se acostumou tanto com esta metodologia, que isso ‘vicia’ a mentalidade, na medida em que se torna um elemento subjacente que pode cair no risco de se perder de vista a complexidade já mencionada acima, e a limitação do conhecimento humano. Ao, muitas das vezes, ter a metodologia do equilíbrio em mente, mesmo como um mero modelo normativo, o economista cai no risco de acabar sendo ‘cegado’ por ele. Isso se reflete no que o economista Ludwig Lachmann, seguidor de Hayek, poderia chamar de ‘paradoxo da ricardianização’: fenômenos complexos precisam de simplificações e ferramentas teóricas para serem compreendidos, no entanto, essas mesmas simplificações e ferramentas teóricas podem fazer perder de vista a complexidade inerente para entender o problema econômico.

Em condições estáticas como o modelo de equilíbrio, se pressupõe que os agentes tem um conhecimento no mínimo quase perfeito sobre a realidade econômica. Segundo Hayek, isto abre portas para uma ilusão que transfere a simplicidade da teoria para a complexidade da realidade.

O artigo de Hayek então, vem para também alertar sobre os enganos que essa metodologia, uma vez que não se tenha o cuidado certo e a noção de que é uma mera simplificação teórica, pode nos causar: como por exemplo, o problema de esquecer o significado da complexidade dinâmica da economia e da natureza do conhecimento humano, tal como dos processos necessários para o uso dele em um ambiente onde temos agentes de conhecimento limitado e falível. Ou seja, sobre a importância de categorias institucionais que fazem emergir genético-casualmente os fenômenos econômicos necessários para lidar com a complexidade.

Um dos frutos deste engano pode ser encontrados no contexto pelo qual Hayek direcionou essa crítica, em 1945. Nesta época, estava em voga a segunda fase do Debate do Cálculo Econômico sob o Socialismo, tendo a primeira fase ocorrido na capital da Áustria, em Viena, de Ludwig Von Mises contra marxistas clássicos ou economistas de influência marxista, como Karl Polanyi, Eduard Heimann, Karl Kautsky, entre outros.

Já a segunda fase, ocorre em Londres, na qual figura-se Hayek contra os socialistas neoclássicos: Oskar Lange, Abba Lerner, H.D Dickinson, Evan Durbin. Os socialistas neoclássicos eram uma série de economistas que sintetizavam os princípios socialistas da planificação central, com a metodologia da economia neoclássica, em especial, da Escola da Lausanne. Eles visavam construir um modelo que ficou conhecido como ‘socialismo de mercado’. Neste sistema, nós temos diversas variações de modelos que se baseiam, em características gerais, como: firmas estatizadas que seguem um planejamento central, com base em um mercado sintético para recursos que não sejam bens de capital (estes que seriam precificados pelo planejamento central por meio de um processo de tâtonnement, ou, tentativa e erro), com regras de minimização de custos, que supostamente simularia a famosa teoria da competição perfeita dos livros-texto neoclássicos. Diferente dos marxistas, os socialistas neoclássicos reconheciam dois pontos importantes: a necessidade do cálculo econômico como ferramenta para se manter a racionalidade econômica, e a necessidade do mercado para realizá-lo. O que eles negavam, no entanto, é que a propriedade privada fosse requisito necessário para se ter processos de mercado reais, e assim, o cálculo econômico racional.

A conclusão que Hayek chega, após este debate, é o de que a não-visualização da impossibilidade da realização destes modelos dentro da realidade, reside em última instância, na não-contemplação da complexidade inerente ao problema alocativo. Os economistas neoclássicos estavam, na verdade, transferindo as simplificações teóricas para a realidade, na medida em que dependiam delas para ‘provar’ a viabilidade de suas ideias; e na medida em que faziam isso, não entendiam a origem genético-casual de como se operam os mercados reais, fora do plano teórico e simplificatório, e de como o uso do conhecimento dentro da sociedade operava nesse âmbito.

Na medida em que as simplificações teóricas nos cegam para este problema, corremos o risco de cair em hipóteses irrealistas, tal como caíram tais economistas: ao relegar os seus modelos sobre como uma planificação central poderia ‘simular’ os mercados, de uma maneira estática e equilibrista, acabaram por deixar de lado toda a visão e o reconhecimento da complexidade inerente ao problema; justamente pois estão pressupondo um conhecimento praticamente perfeito sobre a realidade, através da metodologia específica do equilíbrio, fora de um arranjo institucional que permitira ocorrer os processos de correção do conhecimento, que por natureza é sempre falível.

Essa tendência aparece principalmente na forma como o conhecimento é tratado dentro destes autores: de forma caracteristicamente ‘positivista’, sempre pressupondo que o conhecimento que temos sobre a realidade está correto, e nunca passível de erros; algo ‘objetivo’ que pode ser coletado empiricamente, e sempre aparecendo como ‘dado’ e passível de indução generalizada.

Uma vez que o economista tem uma mentalidade viciada por uma metodologia que pressupõe conhecimento praticamente perfeito sobre a realidade econômica, mesmo que de forma puramente metodológica, o reconhecimento da complexidade é deixado de lado, e seria viável pensar que alguém poderia ‘planejar’ a economia, e eliminar a propriedade privada. Seria completamente possível, pressupondo o conhecimento perfeito, que um comitê central coordene toda a economia de um país. O que Hayek alerta é que isso não é possível, justamente devido à limitação do conhecimento do ser humano em relação a complexidade inerente da realidade econômica. É impossível a mente humana contemplar isto sozinha; mas a economia neoclássica indiretamente pressupõe uma metodologia que tira de foco isto, e assim, acaba caindo nesse perigo e esquecendo da necessidade de processos institucionais de correção do nosso conhecimento, que é proporcionado pelo sistema de preços no mercado, através do processo competitivo, que por sua vez, só pode ser proporcionado pela propriedade privada. Como diz Hayek, no artigo do qual estamos tratando:

“Evidentemente, esses ajustes provavelmente nunca são “perfeitos” no sentido de perfeição que os economistas utilizam em suas análises sobre o equilíbrio econômico. No entanto, temo que nosso hábito teórico de abordar cada problema com a presunção de um conhecimento mais ou menos perfeito da parte de quase todos os envolvidos quase nos tenha cegado para a verdadeira função do mecanismo de preço, levando-nos a aplicar de forma enganosa padrões inadequados para julgar sua eficiência. É maravilhoso que em uma situação na qual haja escassez de um tipo de matéria prima, sem que nenhuma ordem seja dada, sem que talvez não mais que um punhado de pessoas saibam a causa dessa escassez, dezenas de milhares de pessoas cujas identidades jamais serão conhecidas, mesmo depois de meses de investigação, começam então a utilizar essa matéria ou seus subprodutos de maneira mais econômica; ou seja, todas elas agem na direção correta. Isto, em si mesmo, é suficientemente maravilhoso; mesmo que, em um mundo de incertezas constantes, nem tudo consiga se organizar tão perfeitamente para que suas porcentagens de lucros se mantenham constantemente no mesmo nível considerado “normal”.”

3. O papel da inovação e no uso das oportunidades

A natureza do conhecimento humano, por sempre ser falível, indica que nunca saberemos se o que estamos fazendo, poderia ser de fato, feito de uma forma melhor. Há sempre novas formas de inovar, de usar os recursos de uma forma mais eficiente, de encontrar novos caminhos e formas melhores de fazer algo, de usar oportunidades para tirar proveito, e assim, inovar e trazer algo que beneficia não só a um único indivíduo, mas para toda a sociedade. Quando alguém, por exemplo, encontra uma oportunidade no seu bairro, de oferecer um serviço novo, e age de acordo com isto para ter proveito individual, essa pessoa está, ainda que inconscientemente, beneficiando a coletividade daquele bairro, indo em busca do seu próprio interesse, e se utilizando de uma oportunidade que até agora tinha passado despercebida.

Isso só pode ser feito com um sistema que dê possibilidade para as milhares de pessoas com o conhecimento limitado dentro do seu espaço, possam agir, de forma a aproveitar todas as oportunidades dentro do seu local, e assim, inovarem e gerarem externalidades positivas para todos. Essa é uma das formas do uso do conhecimento na sociedade: a liberdade que as pessoas devem ter para usar as oportunidades no seu espaço, e o seu próprio conhecimento (ou talentos e habilidades) para inovarem e trazerem benefícios, na extensão que alguém possa encontrar eficientemente novas soluções para adaptações rápidas, a um nível comparativamente próximo ao biológico-evolutivo, em relação aos problemas que aparecem na realidade.

Enquanto poderíamos afirmar que a metodologia neoclássica tem uma perspectiva da economia que se aproxima da física ou da engenharia química, poderíamos afirmar que a dos austríacos se aproxima da biologia, na medida em que esta tenta entender a extensão pelo qual certos arranjos institucionais específicos nos permitem uma rápida adaptação e resolução de problemas em meio a ambientes complexos e dinâmicos. O mercado é um constante processo de descoberta, na medida que sempre permite um espaço descentralizado com um sistema corretor, que nos permita sempre encontrar ou criar uma forma melhor de lidar com a realidade.

Seria inútil pensar, segundo Hayek, que alguns planejadores, alheios a aqueles processos locais, poderiam saber absolutamente todas as oportunidades a serem usadas em cada lugar, e assim, selecionar quais as melhores formas de inovar; e de que as pessoas diretamente envolvidas nesses processos locais, interagindo com eles por meio de mecanismos específicos, seriam supostamente incapazes de fazer isto. O reconhecimento da limitação do nosso conhecimento, nos permite então enxergar a necessidade da defesa da liberdade, como um fundamento pelo qual nos é permitido sempre reconhecer nossos erros, aptidões e oportunidades, de maneira que temos de ter em mente a ideia de que sempre pode-se haver formas melhores e novas de fazer algo de uma maneira ainda mais eficiente. E é por meio do sistema de preços, que cada pessoa dentro de seu ‘alcance de visão limitado’, consegue ‘se conectar’ dentro de um todo, e assim, conseguir emergir uma ordem que consiga manter a racionalidade econômica e bem-estar de todos.

Como cita Hayek, no artigo do qual estamos tratando:

“Basta apenas nos lembrarmos do quanto precisamos aprender em qualquer profissão depois de termos completado nossa formação teórica, quão grande é a parte da nossa vida profissional em que passamos aprendendo habilidades específicas, e quão valioso, em todas as circunstâncias da vida, é o conhecimento das pessoas, das condições locais e de certas circunstâncias especiais. Conhecer e saber operar uma máquina que não estava sendo adequadamente explorada, ou explorar a habilidade de alguém que poderia ser mais bem aproveitado, ou estar consciente de um excedente de reservas que pode ser usado durante uma interrupção temporária do fornecimento é tão útil socialmente quanto o conhecimento das melhores técnicas alternativas. O transportador que ganha sua vida descobrindo como melhor aproveitar seu espaço de carga que ficaria vazio, o agente imobiliário cujo conhecimento consiste quase que exclusivamente em encontrar oportunidades temporárias, ou o indivíduo que faz arbitragem, que lucra a partir das diferenças locais entre os preços de certos bens — todos eles realizam trabalhos eminentemente úteis que são baseados em um conhecimento especial das circunstâncias de um momento fugidio, desconhecido por outros.
É curioso que nos dias de hoje esse tipo de conhecimento seja amplamente menosprezado, e que as pessoas que fazem uso dele para alcançarem privilégios sobre pessoas com melhor preparo teórico ou técnico sejam vistas quase como se estivessem fazendo algo desonrado. Mas, embora conquistar privilégios usando um conhecimento superior quanto às condições de comunicação e transporte seja visto como algo quase desonesto, a verdade é que, para a sociedade, é quase tão importante fazer o melhor uso possível dessas oportunidades quanto das últimas descobertas científicas”.

Tags:hayek, socialismo

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